Tariffs and Returns: Lessons from 150 Years of Market History

Trade tariffs are back — reshaping markets and raising critical questions for investors. In early 2025, the United States enacted broad-based tariffs on nearly all trading partners, ...
Trade tariffs are back — reshaping markets and raising critical questions for investors. In early 2025, the United States enacted broad-based tariffs on nearly all trading partners, ...
Style regimes constitute one of investors’ largest risk factors, second only to overall equity exposure. After 15 years of growth style dominance, the return of intra-market ...
Editor’s Note: This is the first in a series of articles that challenge the conventional wisdom that stocks always outperform bonds over the long term and that a negative correlation ...
Traditional investment approaches assume investors have equal access to market information and make rational, emotionless decisions. Behavioral finance, championed by Richard Thaler, ...
Robert Shiller’s cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio (CAPE) is approaching historically high levels. In fact, CAPE’s current value has been exceeded only twice since 1900. ...
Editor’s Note: This is the second in a series of articles that challenge the conventional wisdom that stocks always outperform bonds over the long term and that a negative ...
There is notable disagreement among academics about how investment time horizon should affect portfolio allocations. In recent research released through CFA Institute Research ...
Editor’s Note: This is the final article in a three-part series that challenges the conventional wisdom that stocks always outperform bonds over the long term and that a negative ...
After nearly two years of high interest rates, investors are anticipating rate cuts in the coming months. The transition from highly expansionary to highly contractionary monetary ...
Does gold hedge inflation? On average the answer is no, empirically speaking. But gold’s relationship with inflation is complicated, making any blanket statement about its role in ...
Pim van Vliet, PhD, is the author of High Returns from Low Risk: A Remarkable Stock Market Paradox, with Jan de Koning. High inflation and expensive equities lead to a ...
If you focus only on returns and covariances over a one-year investment horizon, you may conclude that commodities have no place in an investment portfolio. The efficiency of ...