Dose of Reality: How to Manage Expectations in Golf

The biggest mistake I’ve made in 25 years of playing golf isn’t a swing or grip change. It wasn’t using the wrong clubs, either.

No, the biggest mistake was having the wrong expectations about how I “should” perform from tee to green. 

I’m not alone either, after talking with countless golfers most of us think we should do better. Meaning, most of us think that we should have more fairways, more greens, scramble better, and drain more putts.

However, the wrong expectations can lead to impossible standards and poor performance. Today, I’ll guide you through the numbers of pros and amateurs at all levels to reset your golf expectations. When you have the right expectations and goals, you’ll have less pressure on yourself and likely play better than ever. 

Manage Expectations to Play Better Golf

To tap into your true potential on the golf course, you must learn to accept that bad shots are part of the game. Thinking you’ll never hit one is setting you up for failure. 

As Tiger Woods said, “You’re going to make mistakes. The key is to learn from them as fast as possible and make changes as soon as you can.”  

When you learn different statistics today and have the right mindset about learning from mistakes, you can play better than ever. 

Key Takeaways

• Having the wrong expectations about how many fairways greens, or putts you should make only makes golf harder.
• With so much data from the PGA Tour, Arccos, and other stat tracking apps, it’s time to reset your expectations.
• When you have the right expectations for your handicap level, it reduces pressure and stress. Which will likely lead to lower scores.
• Plus, if you do want to lower your handicap, you can learn the stats behind more skilled golfers, which makes it easier to set the right goals.

Before getting into specific handicap levels, let’s start with the average male golfer. 

Average Male Golfer

According to the USGA, the average male golfer who keeps a handicap has a 14.2 index. If this factored in everyone who played golf, it would likely be 8-10 (or more) shots higher. Not to mention playing by the rules of golf.

Let’s start here, if you’re less than 14.2, congratulations… you’re beating the average golfer. If you’re not there yet, don’t beat yourself up, golf is a very challenging game with a steep learning curve. 

If you’re above your ideal handicap, start by tracking your statistics so you can learn more about each part of your game. When you track enough rounds and learn the power of strokes gained, it makes it easy to identify your weaknesses. Once you do, then you can analyze your stats and spend a majority of your time in practice on those areas. 

Average Driving Distance

Next up is average driving distance, as this is one of the most important metrics in golf. Why? 

Longer distances off the tee directly correlate to lower scoring averages – across all ages. Simply put, the longer you can get it off the tee, the easier golf gets. 

Here are the average driving distances according to Golf.com, who referenced the 2022 distance report from the USGA and R&A. 

• “Amateur male golfers of all levels average about 215 yards of driving distance.
• Golfers with a handicap between 13 and 20 average 200 yards.
• Golfers between the high single digits and low double digits average just shy of 220 yards.
• Golfers with a handicap below six average just shy of 240 yards.”

Trackman found similar distances, with the average male golfer only hitting it about 214 yards off the tee. If you want to lower your handicap fast, make sure to increase your driving distance as soon as possible.

Here’s how…

First, make sure you have the right driver for your swing. 

The right clubhead, hosel settings, and shaft play a major role in getting the most of your club. Consider a custom fitting to optimize your current driver and test out new head/shaft combinations too.

Second, start overspeed training. When you learn how to swing the club faster, you can add distance quickly. Try out Rypstick, SuperSpeed Golf, or if you’re a more experienced golfer, consider The Stack System.

Finally, don’t forget to incorporate some golf workouts and golf stretches to your weekly routines. 

Greens in Regulation 

Golf.com and Arccos have a great article that shares greens in regulation for different handicaps. Look at these numbers to reset your expectations on how many birdie chances you should have each round:

• 25 handicap: 16% 
• 20 handicap: 20%
• 15 handicap: 26%
• 10 handicap: 34%
• 5 handicap: 45%
• Scratch: 58% 

Learn how to hit more greens in regulation and make sure you have the right approach shot strategy too. 

PGA Tour Averages

Before getting into amateur golfers, let’s set the stage with the best of the best golfers. Because chances are, you think they only hit 350 yard bombs, impressive irons, and never miss a putt. Unfortunately, that’s just the highlight reel of the best golfers during their best weeks of the year.

This is not how they perform on a weekly basis! 

I bring this up to hopefully give perspective that if the best guys in the world miss fairways, greens, and putts, you will too. And that’s okay, as you’ll see throughout this guide, you do not need to hit 100% perfect shots to play great golf.

Look at some of these stats which are listed on the PGA Tour website from the 2021-2022 season:

• Driving distance: 296 yards 
• Fairway average: 61% 
• Greens in regulation: 65% 
• Scrambling: 58% 
• Sand saves: 50.5% 
• Putts per round: 29.01 
• 8-feet make rate: 52.94% 

So when you see Rory hit it 350 yards, Justin Thomas throws a dart on the greens, or Xander makes a 50-footer, remember… This is the highlight reel! 

Don’t get me wrong, these guys are wildly talented, but they are not perfect! 

15 Handicap

Golf Monthly partnered with Shot Scope to reveal some insightful data about 15 handicaps. Which, as a reminder, is about the average male golfer. 

Let’s start with a long game. “When you look at the average drive for the 15-handicapper and remove 10% of extreme outliers (both good and bad), you’re looking at a distance of 236 yards.” which is slightly longer than the study from Arccos and Trackman. 

Accuracy wise, they only hit about eight fairways per round and four greens in regulation, according to the study. Inside 50 yards they only get 34% of shots up and down with the average proximity to about 17 feet. Learn how to hit 50-75 yard shots here. 

Finally, let’s not forget about putting. The average 15-handicapper 3-putts once every 9.7 holes! 

5-Handicap

Golf Monthly also partnered with Arccos for a different study with more than 540 million shots of data. Here’s what they found about five handicaps. 

• Driving distance: 247 yards
• Driving accuracy: 49%
• Greens in regulation: 46%
• Up and downs 25–50 yards: 20%
• Up and downs 0–25 yards: 46% 
• Putts per round: 32.1

Scratch Golfer 

Now, what about the statistics behind scratch golfers? This is where things get very interesting.

Why? Because most people assume that scratch golfers are nearly perfect from tee to green. But Arccos found that it’s just not the case – which is a good thing, as it should remind you that perfect golf isn’t required to score well.

Here are some statistics about scratch golfers:

• Tee shot distance: 259 yards
• Fairways hit: 51%
• Greens in regulation: 56%
• Bunker saves: 39% from 0–25 yards and 27% from 25–50 yards
• Putting: 5.2 one putts and 1.3 three putts 
• Birdies: 2.2 per round

Don’t forget, a scratch golfer is 14 shots better than the average golfer who keeps a USGA handicap. And they only hit about 50% of fairways and greens! 

So if you miss the fairways and greens, stop beating yourself up. You can even 3-putt occasionally and still reach the elusive scratch golf level. 

My Experience 

When I started learning different statistics about PGA Tour players, it led me down this rabbit hole for amateur golfers too. But unlike going down a YouTube University rabbit hole – this helped my game, it didn’t confuse me. 

Let’s face it, if you’re being honest with yourself, I bet you’re too hard on yourself. You expect to hit more fairways, more greens, and make more putts… despite working 40+ hours a week and juggling family life. 

Golf tends to attract very committed, type A people who will do whatever it takes to improve. Whether it’s buying new clubs, getting more lessons, buying new gadgets, or even building a DIY simulator.

I’m the same way. While I applaud your commitment to this great game, hopefully these stats will help you remove some pressure from yourself. If you think you can’t miss a fairway or never 3-putt, you’re only making golf harder on yourself.

When you manage your expectations, track your stats, and work on your weaknesses, you can become unstoppable. Not to mention, have a lot more fun. 

Final Thoughts

If you’re a committed golfer and want to keep improving, I highly recommend getting into competitive events. Whether it’s a club championship, member guest, or some other event, it’s a great way to learn more about your game.

Playing under pressure is a fantastic way to test your mental game and see how your swing holds up too. If you’re curious about playing in formal tournaments, read this article next: