That is the question asked in a recent Health Affairs Forefront article by Peter Neumann, Josh Cohen, Sean Sullivan and Feng Xie. They compare the CMS negotiated prices for Initial Price Applicability Year (IPAY) 2027 against value-based prices (using QALYs) from the Tufts Cost-Effectiveness Analysis (CEA) Registry.
The authors found that cost-effectiveness estimates varied among these drugs, with incremental cost-effectiveness ratios ranging from $1,800/QALY to $640,000/QALY. Six drug-indications had a cost effectiveness ratio below $50,000/QALY, whereas ten exceeded $100,000/QALY.
Overall, the authors claimed that 4 drug-indication had a negotiated price exceeding value, 4 had a negotiated price approximately equal to value, and 11 had a negotiated price lower than treatment value.
You can read more on the methodology and the drug-specific results here.
