Circana: Craft Losses Outpace Total Beer, Dragged by Accelerating Grocery Channel Declines

The craft segment’s dollar sales and volume declines have accelerated to start the second quarter, traditionally the lead-up to beer’s all important summer selling season, according to the most recent off-premise report from market research firm Circana.

In the four-week period ending April 20 (L4W), craft’s dollar sales and volume, measured in case sales, declined 6.3% and 7.2%, respectively, at multi-outlet grocery, mass retail and convenience stores (MULO+C). Those metrics mark an acceleration from the segment’s year-to-date (YTD) trends, down 4.9% and 6%, respectively.

Craft’s declines outpaced the overall beer category, which was also in decline YTD (-2.6% in dollars, -4.3% in volume) and in the L4W (-2.8% in dollars, -4.3% in volume).

Losses were most acute in the grocery channel, where craft over-indexes (No. 3 segment overall behind domestic premium and import) compared to c-stores (No. 6 segment overall). In grocery stores, craft’s dollar sales declines accelerated to 7.8% in the L4W (versus -6% YTD) and volume losses accelerated to 8.1% (versus -6.8% YTD).

Smaller declines in c-stores were not enough to offset grocery’s losses. In the convenience channel, craft’s dollar sales declined 3.1% in the L4W (versus -2.3% YTD) and volume declined 4.6% (versus -3.9% YTD).

It is important to note that off-premise scan data paints an incomplete picture, as it does not capture all off-premise retailers and excludes all on-premise and at-the-brewery sales, which are important to craft.

Among the top 30 craft brands in Circana-tracked MULO+C channels, 10 posted growth in both dollars and volume. Half of those recorded accelerating dollar sales growth:

• No. 4 Sierra Nevada Hazy Little Thing, +1.6% in dollars and +0.8% in volume YTD, and +2% in dollars and +0.5% in volume L4W;
• No. 8 Anheuser-Busch (A-B) InBev-owned Kona Big Wave, +3.7% in dollars and +3% in volume YTD, and +11% in dollars and +15.6% in volume L4W;
• No. 15 A-B’s Goose Island Tropical Beer Hug DDH Double IPA, +25.7% in dollars and +23.7% in volume YTD, and +28.7% in dollars and +26.2% in volume L4W;
• No. 16 Monster’s Cigar City Jai Alai IPA, +2.1% in dollars and +3.6% in volume YTD, and +15.8% in dollars and +27.1% in volume L4W;
• No. 27 Georgetown Bodhizafa IPA, +5.3% in dollars and +0.1% in volume YTD, and +15.1% in dollars and +9.3% in volume L4W.

Both Kona and Jai Alai have dropped price in the L4W, by $1.40 and $4.23 per case, respectively.

Four of the top 30 brands – three belonging to New Belgium’s Voodoo Ranger family – posted slowing growth between the YTD and L4W periods:

• No. 2 New Belgium Voodoo Ranger Imperial IPA, +4.2% in dollars and +2.7% in volume YTD, and +3.4% in dollars and +1.9% in volume L4W;
• No. 3 New Belgium Voodoo Ranger Juice Force Hazy Imperial IPA, +10.3% in dollars and +8.6% in volume YTD, and +8.3% in dollars and +6.8% in volume L4W;
• No. 10 New Belgium Voodoo Ranger Tropic Force IPA, +74.6% in dollars and +75.1% in volume YTD, and +19.2% in dollars and +18.3% in volume L4W;
• No. 10 A-B’s Wicked Weed Pernicious IPA, +28.9% in dollars and +31.1% in volume YTD, and +24.3% in dollars and +24.8% in volume L4W;

No. 29 Rhinegeist Truth IPA went from dollar sales growth YTD (+0.7% in dollars, -0.6% in volume) to declines (-8.5% in dollars, -9% in volume) in the L4W.

One top 30 brand shifted from dollar sales declines YTD to growth in the L4W, though its volume did not make the same transition. No. 20 Lagunitas A Little Sumpin’ Sumpin’ Ale’s dollar sales went from -1.6% YTD to +0.5% in the L4W; its volume losses were 4.9% YTD and 1.9% in the L4W.

Of the 19 brands with negative YTD dollar sales, seven recorded decelerating losses:

• No. 9 Heineken-owned Lagunitas IPA, -8.3% in dollars and -10.8% in volume YTD, and -7.1% in dollars and -9.1% in volume L4W;
• No. 11 Duvel-owned Firestone Walker 805, -6.6% in dollars and -9% in volume YTD, -6% in dollars and -7.5% in volume L4W;
• No. 13 New Belgium-owned Bell’s Two Hearted IPA, -5% in dollars and -6.4% in volume YTD, and -3.5% in dollars and -5.2% in volume L4W;
• No. 22 New Belgium Voodoo Ranger Hoppy variety pack, -31.1% in dollars and -31.9% in volume YTD, and -29.5% in dollars and -30.4% in volume L4W;
• No. 25 Sierra Nevada Torpedo Extra IPA, -17.6% in dollars and -18.1% in volume YTD, and -15.2% in dollars and -17% in volume L4W;
• No. 26 New Belgium Voodoo Ranger Fruit Force Hazy Imperial IPA, -54.5% in dollars and -55% in volume YTD, and -37.2% in dollars and -37.5% in volume L4W;
• And No. 28 Sierra Nevada Big Little Thing Imperial IPA, -3.8% in dollars and -4.7% in volume YTD, and -1% in dollars and -2.5% in volume L4W.

Ten brands recorded accelerating losses:

• No. 1 Molson Coors’ Blue Moon Belgian White, -7.8% in dollars and -11.6% in volume YTD, and -11.4% in dollars and -16.8% L4W;
• No. 5 Sierra Nevada Pale Ale, -4.7% in dollars and -5.7% in volume YTD, and -6.5% in dollars and -7.6% in volume L4W;
• No. 6 Gambrinus-owned Shiner Bock, -7.2% in dollars and -7.3% in volume YTD, and -11.9% in dollars and -14% in volume L4W;
• No. 12 Mahou-owned Founders All Day IPA, -5.1% in dollars and -5.5% in volume YTD, and -7.1% in dollars and -9.5% in volume L4W;
• No. 14 Boston Beer-owned Samuel Adams Seasonal, -10.1% in dollars and -10.6% in volume YTD, and -33.9% in dollars and -33.1% in volume L4W;
• No. 17 Molson Coors’ Leinenkugel’s Summer Shandy, -11.4% in dollars and -14% in volume YTD, and -21.4% in dollars and -21.7% in volume L4W;
• No. 18 Samuel Adams Boston Lager, -9.5% in dollars and -10.5% in volume YTD, and -10.7% in dollars and -11.2% in volume L4W;
• No. 21 Blue Moon Light, -2.1% in dollars and 3% in volume YTD, and -13.1% in dollars and -13% in volume L4W;
• No. 23 New Belgium Voodoo Ranger Juicy Haze IPA, -18.4% in dollars and -19% in volume YTD, and -20.1% in dollars and -20.5% in volume L4W;
• And No. 24 New Belgium Fat Tire, -22.1% in dollars and -23.5% in volume YTD, and -23.1% in dollars and -24.2% in volume L4W.

Two brands’ dollar sales were roughly flat between the time periods:

• No. 7 A-B’s Elysian Space Dust IPA, +6.1% in dollars and +8% in volume YTD, and +6.2% in dollars and +6.4% in volume L4W;
• And No. 30 A-B’s Goose Island IPA, -17.8% in dollars and -17.7% in volume YTD, and -17.8% in dollars and -18.7% in volume L4W.

Four brands made the top 30 list in the grocery channel without also appearing on the MULO+C top 30 list:

• No. 24 Sierra Nevada Hazy IPA variety pack, $3.57 million YTD (+467.4%);
• No. 26 Sapporo-owned Stone IPA, $2.96 million YTD (+4.4%);
• No. 29 Bell’s Seasonal, $2.58 million YTD (-24.3%);
• And No. 30 Stone Delicious IPA, $2.67 million YTD (-6%).

Samuel Adams Seasonal notably over-indexed in grocery, where it ranked No. 7 vs. No. 14 on the MULO+C list and No. 22 in c-stores. Its dollar sales reached $9.9 million in grocery stores YTD (-1.7%).

In the convenience channel, three brands cracked the top 30 list without also appearing on the MULO+C top 30 list:

• No. 27 A-B’s Goose Island Big Juicy Beer Hug Imperial IPA, $2.57 million YTD (+507.8%);
• No. 28 Fiddlehead IPA, $2.35 million YTD (+0.7%);
• No. 29 Tilray’s SweetWater 420 Extra Pale Ale, $2.17 million YTD (+2.7%).