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You know times are tough when brewing executives start talking like therapists. In early September, Constellation Brands\u2019 chief executive officer Bill Newlands told<\/a> the crowd at Barclays\u2019 annual Consumer Staples Conference that the macrobrewer was \u201ccontrolling the controllables.\u201d What\u2019s next \u2014 holding space for lost sales? Being intentional about your fiscal guidance revisions? Leaning in on layoffs?<\/p>\n It\u2019s all very depressing these days, and not just for the Modelo parent company. The third quarter of 2025 was a stretch with precious few shining moments for the beleaguered American brewing industry. The trade\u2019s top leaders have been doing their damndest to reframe the dismal outlook to their shareholders, employees, and maybe themselves, too. That\u2019s their prerogative.<\/p>\n But your humble Hop Take columnist\u2019s prerogative is radical transparency. I would never gaslight you, reader. It\u2019s time for some editorial exposure therapy. Following tough sessions in Q1<\/a> and Q2<\/a>, here\u2019s your Hop Take Quarterly Beer Business Report Card for the third frame of 2025.<\/p>\n \n\t\t\tDon’t Miss A Drop<\/span> Subject:<\/strong> Government Subject:<\/strong> Fluid (Sales) Dynamics Subject:<\/strong> Innovation Lab Subject:<\/strong> Social Studies Subject:<\/strong> Craftology After nearly four decades<\/strong> in operation, Rogue Ales & Spirits<\/strong> appears to be a bit of a Dead Guy<\/strong> itself. Last week, the Oregon<\/strong> firm, which shut down<\/span> \u201cstrategic[ally] paused<\/a>\u201d its Newport distillery<\/strong> and inked a sales partnership with U.S. Beverage<\/strong> in August 2025<\/strong>, abruptly shut down its five taproom locations<\/strong> and production facility<\/strong>. Local news reports indicate it owes over half a million dollars<\/strong> to its landlord, and another $30,000<\/strong> in back taxes; as many as 500 workers<\/strong> could be out of jobs as a result. It\u2019s the latest pioneering firm born in a geographic cradle of craft brewing to collapse<\/a>, but it almost certainly won\u2019t be the last. Brutal.<\/p>\n Happy<\/a> 45th anniversary<\/strong> to Sierra Nevada Brewing Co.<\/strong> \u2026 The Halloween<\/strong> sales spike didn\u2019t last, but Circana<\/strong> scans indicate beer\u2019s<\/strong> hangover was the most mild<\/a> of any category for the week that followed\u2026 ABI<\/strong> is reportedly<\/a> scheming up a $700-million<\/strong> acquisition of BeatBox<\/strong>\u2026 Hardly a day after Trump<\/strong> signed hemp-derived THC\u2019s<\/strong> delayed death sentence, Wisconsin<\/strong> OG Lakefront Brewery<\/strong> released<\/a> its own infused seltzer line, lol\u2026 UNITE HERE Local 17<\/strong> announced<\/a> Friday<\/strong> that Indeed Brewing Co.<\/strong> has reached a tentative agreement with its workers, averting a potential strike<\/strong>\u2026<\/p>\n Creature Comforts Brewing Co.\u2019s<\/strong> licensed location in Los Angeles<\/strong>, which workers at the Georgia<\/strong> brewery cited<\/a> in 2021<\/strong> as an example of its bosses\u2019 overreach, closed<\/a> permanently\u2026 Monster Brewing<\/strong> plans<\/a> to take a run at the already-crowded<\/a> fauxstalgia<\/em> lager<\/strong> segment in 2026<\/strong> with Stunt Double<\/strong>\u2026 In yet another sign of beer\u2019s fading star, Untappd<\/strong> earlier this month opened<\/a> its ratings platform to include other beverages<\/strong>\u2026<\/p>\n This story is a part of VP Pro<\/a>, our free platform and newsletter for drinks industry professionals, covering wine, beer, liquor, and beyond. Sign up for VP Pro now!<\/a><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n
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Grade:<\/strong> A
In early September, news broke that unnamed figures within the Trump administration\u2019s Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) had moved to suppress<\/a> the final version of the Interagency Coordinating Committee on the Prevention of Underage Drinking\u2019s (ICCPUD) banally titled \u201cAlcohol Intake and Health Study<\/a>.\u201d It was a major victory for the cross-category Science Over Bias lobbying coalition<\/a>, which has since become a lot less vocal<\/a> about its insistence on science that\u2019s \u201ctransparent and free from bias,\u201d despite Robert F. Kennedy Jr.\u2019s opaque and chauvinistic ongoing destruction of the federal public-health system. Hmm! (Obviously, the craft brewer- and distributor-friendly hemp-derived THC business<\/a> got absolutely rolled in Congress<\/a>, but that happened in early November, solidly Q4 territory. Expect this grade to come way down next semester.) Off Capitol Hill, Trump\u2019s tariffs<\/a> and immigration raids<\/a> are still bad for the beer business. How could anybody have<\/a> seen this<\/a> coming<\/a>, etc.?<\/p>\n
Grade:<\/strong> C+
I did not expect earnings reports to be, like, good<\/em> this quarter. But all four publicly traded macrobrewers in the top five bled red ink all over their Q3 filings, with Anheuser-Busch InBev (ABI) \u201cleading\u201d the pack with the least-bad declines. On the strength of Michelob Ultra<\/a> and Cutwater<\/a> in particular, it beat the category\u2019s declines by a bit<\/a>; hardly a resounding success, but still one that likely struck envy at Molson Coors (MC), Constellation, and Heineken, whose year-over-year percentage declines ranged from the mid-single digits to the high teens in their most recent reports. Beer continued to lose ground<\/a> in the on-premise in both draft and package last quarter, and its off-premise performance was consistently down mid-single digits in year-over-year percentages by dollars and volume both. Per the Beer Institute\u2019s latest calculations<\/a>, though, tax-paid estimates indicate the category actually shipped more<\/em> beer in September 2025 than it did for that same month last year. Sure, only 1 percent more, but hey \u2014 it\u2019s still growth! First time this year!<\/p>\n
Grade:<\/strong> C-
Let\u2019s briefly pause to applaud the ascent of Mich Ultra \u2014 a legitimate innovation, back when it was introduced in the early aughts<\/a> \u2014 to the throne of America\u2019s top-selling beer, which finally happened<\/a> in Q3 2025. All right, applause over. As far as actually<\/em> new products, the field was pretty sparse, and the American drinking public seems to have noticed. Bump Williams Consulting tracked<\/a> a 41 percent decline in overall beverage-alcohol \u201cinnovation\u201d products in the past two years, and a 40 percent decline for traditional beer innovations in the same period. Dollar sales of the latter are down 7 percent year-to-date through early October. Anecdotally, I can\u2019t remember a single exciting beer release last quarter besides Sierra Nevada Brewing Company\u2019s 22-state rollout of its pilsner in 8.4-ounce 8-packs<\/a>. It\u2019s probably for the best that the fast-and-furious \u201ctotal beverage\u201d releases that marked the early 2020s are now subsiding, what with the insane chaos it threw the beer aisle into for the past few years. But it sure does make this section less fun!<\/p>\n
Grade:<\/strong> C
Football returned to the teevee last quarter, but beer sales didn\u2019t come back with it.<\/a> The apparent uncoupling of the National Football League\u2019s collective fan thirst from the national beer market\u2019s light adjunct lager offerings does not bode well for the future of the category. Neither, frankly, does ABI\u2019s apparent eagerness to consolidate its red network as much as possible, which was on display this August<\/a>; fewer distributors does not a healthy middle tier make. Trump\u2019s tariffs absolutely clobbered blue-collar workers, per a mid-Q3 report from The Guardian<\/a>; fewer of those does not a healthy beer market make. Oh, speaking of classes, the AFL-CIO\u2019s latest Executive Paywatch report<\/a>, released in July, found<\/a> that CEOs at Boston Beer Co. (BBC), Constellation, MC, Monster Beverage Corporation, and Tilray Brands made anywhere from 82 to 306 times more than their median employee. Seems bad?<\/p>\n
Grade:<\/strong> C
It was nice to see BBC co-founder and chairman Jim Koch return to the CEO desk<\/a>, even though at this point the business is a craft brewer in the same sense that IHOP is a hamburger restaurant. It was less nice to see the Bay Area\u2019s venerable 21st Amendment Brewery close after 25 years<\/a>; Iron Hill Brewery abruptly close all its locations<\/a>; Island Brands\u2019 co-founders get named in an investor lawsuit<\/a>; BrewDog\u2019s remaining co-founder Martin Dickie suddenly resign<\/a>; Monster\u2019s brewing division post -17 percent net sales<\/a>; and\u2026 well, you get it. It was another tough quarter for the embattled craft segment, there\u2019s no two ways about it. No wonder the Brewers Association decided to pare back<\/a> the schedule for the 2026 Craft Brewers Conference. Has anybody tried simply manifesting a better market yet? Think positive thoughts.<\/p>\n\ud83e\udd2f Hop-ocalypse Now<\/h2>\n
\ud83d\udcc8 Ups\u2026<\/h2>\n
\ud83d\udcc9 \u2026and downs<\/h2>\n