{"id":320065,"date":"2025-11-26T11:59:20","date_gmt":"2025-11-26T11:59:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/som2nypost.com\/uncategorized\/professor-michael-robertos-blog-testing-your-assumptions\/"},"modified":"2025-11-26T11:59:20","modified_gmt":"2025-11-26T11:59:20","slug":"professor-michael-robertos-blog-testing-your-assumptions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/som2nypost.com\/?p=320065","title":{"rendered":"Professor Michael Roberto&#8217;s Blog: Testing Your Assumptions"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div id=\"post-body-5170287570274350889\" itemprop=\"description articleBody\">\n<div class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgGEP-6oL1JkPlqLvSkNpbXSvSIHfK21Sf1dffv7NDvQ84CQ1pNU1CZcqPKedFTwxEW-30ddL6kzIOSpXeuWtOLn6-PLUYpcc19FjqHxGpqHda8y7ag2EUSZEwN5uCcFXWHovMIBl1smT1B4qfhSSJyjM-LDG6S3ei1pZI9mxa55QOl7txEKY4\/s1024\/Always-test-Assumptions.jpg\" style=\"clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" border=\"0\" data-original-height=\"889\" data-original-width=\"1024\" height=\"278\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgGEP-6oL1JkPlqLvSkNpbXSvSIHfK21Sf1dffv7NDvQ84CQ1pNU1CZcqPKedFTwxEW-30ddL6kzIOSpXeuWtOLn6-PLUYpcc19FjqHxGpqHda8y7ag2EUSZEwN5uCcFXWHovMIBl1smT1B4qfhSSJyjM-LDG6S3ei1pZI9mxa55QOl7txEKY4\/s320\/Always-test-Assumptions.jpg\" width=\"320\"\/><\/a><\/div>\n<p>You&#8217;ve used AI and\/or Excel to build a beautiful model that examines the ROI of a new venture, project, or initiative.\u00a0 The result? A strong case for investment, because the ROI is quite good.\u00a0 You are ready to make your case to senior executives and\/or investors.\u00a0 How can you stress test your model?\u00a0 The most important thing you can do is to test your assumptions. After all, garbage in, garbage out. If you build a model based on false assumptions, you are in big trouble.\u00a0 Of course, confirmation bias afflicts many of us as we make decisions. We may be picking and choosing assumptions to deliver a rosy picture, rather than making more realistic presumptions about the future.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">How do we decide which assumptions warrant the most attention and should be tested vigorously?\u00a0 Jon Fjeld was a long-time tech industry executive, and he now teaches at Duke&#8217;s Fuqua School of Business.\u00a0 <a href=\"https:\/\/sloanreview.mit.edu\/article\/how-to-test-your-assumptions\/\">He has a simple method for determining which assumptions need to be scrutinized first.<\/a>\u00a0 He argues that three factors are critical:<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><i>1. Severity:\u00a0 How big is the impact on the project if the assumption is not true?<\/i><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><i>2. Probability: How likely is it that the assumption is not true?<\/i><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><i>3. Cost:\u00a0 How expensive and time consuming is it to test the assumption?<\/i><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Fjeld uses these three factors to create a simple ratio that can be used to rank your assumptions.\u00a0 His equation is: (Severity x Probability)\/Cost.\u00a0 \u00a0The higher the ratio, the more important it is that your prioritize the testing and validation of that assumption.\u00a0 While we don&#8217;t actually have a clear way to quantify these three factors, the concept of this ratio makes good sense.\u00a0 By thinking about these three factors, and their relationship to one another, we can do a better job of deciding how we want to test, experiment, and prototype before making a big bet.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>You&#8217;ve used AI and\/or Excel to build a beautiful model that examines the ROI of a new venture, project, or initiative.\u00a0 The result? A strong case for investment, because the ROI is quite good.\u00a0 You are ready to make your case to senior executives and\/or investors.\u00a0 How can you stress test your model?\u00a0 The most [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":320066,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[147593,147594,147595],"tags":[14954,3767,1823,5463,80481,12632],"dealstore":[],"offerexpiration":[],"class_list":["post-320065","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-assumptions","category-decision-making","category-risk","tag-assumptions","tag-blog","tag-michael","tag-professor","tag-robertos","tag-testing"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Professor Michael Roberto&#039;s Blog: Testing Your Assumptions - Som2ny Network<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/som2nypost.com\/?p=320065\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Professor Michael Roberto&#039;s Blog: Testing Your Assumptions - Som2ny Network\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"You&#8217;ve used AI and\/or Excel to build a beautiful model that examines the ROI of a new venture, project, or initiative.\u00a0 The result? A strong case for investment, because the ROI is quite good.\u00a0 You are ready to make your case to senior executives and\/or investors.\u00a0 How can you stress test your model?\u00a0 The most [&hellip;]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/som2nypost.com\/?p=320065\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Som2ny Network\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-11-26T11:59:20+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/som2nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Always-test-Assumptions.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1024\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"630\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"admin\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"admin\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/som2nypost.com\/?p=320065#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/som2nypost.com\/?p=320065\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"admin\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/som2nypost.com\/#\/schema\/person\/a66cfe5cdcbceba9b5562fe085bcaba4\"},\"headline\":\"Professor Michael Roberto&#8217;s Blog: Testing Your Assumptions\",\"datePublished\":\"2025-11-26T11:59:20+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/som2nypost.com\/?p=320065\"},\"wordCount\":323,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/som2nypost.com\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/som2nypost.com\/?p=320065#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/som2nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Always-test-Assumptions.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"Assumptions\",\"Blog\",\"Michael\",\"Professor\",\"Robertos\",\"Testing\"],\"articleSection\":[\"assumptions\",\"decision making\",\"risk\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/som2nypost.com\/?p=320065#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/som2nypost.com\/?p=320065\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/som2nypost.com\/?p=320065\",\"name\":\"Professor Michael Roberto's Blog: Testing Your Assumptions - Som2ny Network\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/som2nypost.com\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/som2nypost.com\/?p=320065#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/som2nypost.com\/?p=320065#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/som2nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Always-test-Assumptions.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2025-11-26T11:59:20+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/som2nypost.com\/?p=320065#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/som2nypost.com\/?p=320065\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/som2nypost.com\/?p=320065#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/som2nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Always-test-Assumptions.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/som2nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Always-test-Assumptions.jpg\",\"width\":1024,\"height\":630},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/som2nypost.com\/?p=320065#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/som2nypost.com\/?bp_activities=1\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Professor Michael Roberto&#8217;s Blog: Testing Your Assumptions\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/som2nypost.com\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/som2nypost.com\/\",\"name\":\"Som2ny Network\",\"description\":\"Daily Deals\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/som2nypost.com\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/som2nypost.com\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/som2nypost.com\/#organization\",\"name\":\"Som2ny Network\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/som2nypost.com\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/som2nypost.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/som2nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/4a0953c4-logo-300x86-1.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/som2nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/4a0953c4-logo-300x86-1.png\",\"width\":300,\"height\":86,\"caption\":\"Som2ny Network\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/som2nypost.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\"}},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/som2nypost.com\/#\/schema\/person\/a66cfe5cdcbceba9b5562fe085bcaba4\",\"name\":\"admin\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/som2nypost.com\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/729ae85bf62b9917e93538db2f2688ca?s=96&r=g&default=https%3A%2F%2Fsom2nypost.com%2Fwp-content%2Fplugins%2Fbuddypress-first-letter-avatar%2Fimages%2Fdefault%2F96%2Flatin_a.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/729ae85bf62b9917e93538db2f2688ca?s=96&r=g&default=https%3A%2F%2Fsom2nypost.com%2Fwp-content%2Fplugins%2Fbuddypress-first-letter-avatar%2Fimages%2Fdefault%2F96%2Flatin_a.png\",\"caption\":\"admin\"},\"sameAs\":[\"https:\/\/som2nypost.com\"],\"url\":\"https:\/\/som2nypost.com\/?author=1\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Professor Michael Roberto's Blog: Testing Your Assumptions - Som2ny Network","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/som2nypost.com\/?p=320065","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Professor Michael Roberto's Blog: Testing Your Assumptions - Som2ny Network","og_description":"You&#8217;ve used AI and\/or Excel to build a beautiful model that examines the ROI of a new venture, project, or initiative.\u00a0 The result? A strong case for investment, because the ROI is quite good.\u00a0 You are ready to make your case to senior executives and\/or investors.\u00a0 How can you stress test your model?\u00a0 The most [&hellip;]","og_url":"https:\/\/som2nypost.com\/?p=320065","og_site_name":"Som2ny Network","article_published_time":"2025-11-26T11:59:20+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1024,"height":630,"url":"https:\/\/som2nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Always-test-Assumptions.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"admin","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"admin","Est. reading time":"2 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/som2nypost.com\/?p=320065#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/som2nypost.com\/?p=320065"},"author":{"name":"admin","@id":"https:\/\/som2nypost.com\/#\/schema\/person\/a66cfe5cdcbceba9b5562fe085bcaba4"},"headline":"Professor Michael Roberto&#8217;s Blog: Testing Your Assumptions","datePublished":"2025-11-26T11:59:20+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/som2nypost.com\/?p=320065"},"wordCount":323,"commentCount":0,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/som2nypost.com\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/som2nypost.com\/?p=320065#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/som2nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Always-test-Assumptions.jpg","keywords":["Assumptions","Blog","Michael","Professor","Robertos","Testing"],"articleSection":["assumptions","decision making","risk"],"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/som2nypost.com\/?p=320065#respond"]}]},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/som2nypost.com\/?p=320065","url":"https:\/\/som2nypost.com\/?p=320065","name":"Professor Michael Roberto's Blog: Testing Your Assumptions - Som2ny Network","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/som2nypost.com\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/som2nypost.com\/?p=320065#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/som2nypost.com\/?p=320065#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/som2nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Always-test-Assumptions.jpg","datePublished":"2025-11-26T11:59:20+00:00","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/som2nypost.com\/?p=320065#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/som2nypost.com\/?p=320065"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/som2nypost.com\/?p=320065#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/som2nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Always-test-Assumptions.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/som2nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Always-test-Assumptions.jpg","width":1024,"height":630},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/som2nypost.com\/?p=320065#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/som2nypost.com\/?bp_activities=1"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Professor Michael Roberto&#8217;s Blog: Testing Your Assumptions"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/som2nypost.com\/#website","url":"https:\/\/som2nypost.com\/","name":"Som2ny Network","description":"Daily Deals","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/som2nypost.com\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/som2nypost.com\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/som2nypost.com\/#organization","name":"Som2ny Network","url":"https:\/\/som2nypost.com\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/som2nypost.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/som2nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/4a0953c4-logo-300x86-1.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/som2nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/4a0953c4-logo-300x86-1.png","width":300,"height":86,"caption":"Som2ny Network"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/som2nypost.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"}},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/som2nypost.com\/#\/schema\/person\/a66cfe5cdcbceba9b5562fe085bcaba4","name":"admin","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/som2nypost.com\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/729ae85bf62b9917e93538db2f2688ca?s=96&r=g&default=https%3A%2F%2Fsom2nypost.com%2Fwp-content%2Fplugins%2Fbuddypress-first-letter-avatar%2Fimages%2Fdefault%2F96%2Flatin_a.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/729ae85bf62b9917e93538db2f2688ca?s=96&r=g&default=https%3A%2F%2Fsom2nypost.com%2Fwp-content%2Fplugins%2Fbuddypress-first-letter-avatar%2Fimages%2Fdefault%2F96%2Flatin_a.png","caption":"admin"},"sameAs":["https:\/\/som2nypost.com"],"url":"https:\/\/som2nypost.com\/?author=1"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/som2nypost.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/320065","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/som2nypost.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/som2nypost.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/som2nypost.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/som2nypost.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=320065"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/som2nypost.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/320065\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/som2nypost.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/320066"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/som2nypost.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=320065"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/som2nypost.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=320065"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/som2nypost.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=320065"},{"taxonomy":"dealstore","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/som2nypost.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fdealstore&post=320065"},{"taxonomy":"offerexpiration","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/som2nypost.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fofferexpiration&post=320065"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}