{"id":332730,"date":"2025-12-07T03:15:02","date_gmt":"2025-12-07T03:15:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/som2nypost.com\/uncategorized\/six-predictions-for-2026-windermere-real-estate\/"},"modified":"2025-12-07T03:15:02","modified_gmt":"2025-12-07T03:15:02","slug":"six-predictions-for-2026-windermere-real-estate","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/som2nypost.com\/?p=332730","title":{"rendered":"Six Predictions for 2026 &#8211; Windermere Real Estate"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<p><em>The following is a summary of Windermere Principal Economist Jeff Tucker\u2019s six predictions for the U.S. housing market and economy in 2026. He goes into more detail about his predictions in the video below.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Six Predictions for 2026\" width=\"840\" height=\"473\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/Asr4eWBWE3E?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<h2><strong>1. Existing Home Sales Will Pick Up (Barely)<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Home sales have hovered near generational lows for three years. While a sharp rebound is unlikely, conditions point to a modest uptick in 2026. Inventory levels are higher than they\u2019ve been since 2019, and mortgage rates are lower than they\u2019ve been since 2022. Together, those factors should lift existing home sales\u2014but not by much.<\/p>\n<h2><strong>2. Home Prices Will Be Roughly Flat<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Home prices are likely to remain flat in 2026, largely due to higher inventory putting downward pressure on values. The Case-Shiller Home Price Index showed small declines last summer, though that trend faded by fall. Sellers have been highly responsive to market shifts, often de-listing when offers fall short or holding off on listing altogether. That restraint has kept prices from falling further despite growing supply<\/p>\n<h2><strong>3. Inventory Will Climb to Pre-Pandemic Levels<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>The number of homes for sale will likely return to pre-pandemic levels in 2026, possibly as early as spring. Inventory rose sharply in 2025, and a \u201cshadow supply\u201d of homes\u2014those whose owners are waiting for better conditions\u2014remains in the wings. Many \u201cdiscretionary sellers\u201d will continue testing the market, holding out for the right price. That behavior should extend average time on market and boost total listings, giving buyers more options and negotiating power.<\/p>\n<h2><strong>4. The Homeownership Rate Will Decline<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>At current prices and interest rates, homeownership remains out of reach for many middle-class Americans who would have bought in different conditions. Slower rent growth has also reduced urgency among would-be buyers, encouraging them to stay put. More renters are opting for single-family homes to enjoy the space and lifestyle of ownership without a mortgage, a shift that will help push the overall homeownership rate slightly lower.<\/p>\n<h2><strong>5. Mortgage Rates Will Decline Slightly<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Mortgage rates should remain below 6.25% for most of 2026 and could briefly dip under 6%. The Fed\u2019s rate cuts and slower growth have brought 10-year Treasury yields near 4%, while the spread between Treasuries and mortgage rates has narrowed toward its normal range of 2% or less. That trend is expected to continue as refinance risk on mortgage-backed securities gradually fades, but much of the improvement is already reflected in current rates, so significant declines are unlikely.<\/p>\n<h2><strong>6. We Will Avoid a Recession in 2026<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>The U.S. economy weathered several shocks in 2025 but avoided a downturn. Payroll gains have slowed, though more due to shrinking labor supply than weak demand, and unemployment claims have remained stable. After early trade policy turbulence, corporate earnings rebounded strongly, and tariff concerns have faded as court challenges and new trade deals rolled back some of the costliest restrictions.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The following is a summary of Windermere Principal Economist Jeff Tucker\u2019s six predictions for the U.S. housing market and economy in 2026. He goes into more detail about his predictions in the video below. 1. Existing Home Sales Will Pick Up (Barely) Home sales have hovered near generational lows for three years. While a sharp [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":332731,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[102068,12167,106174,158511,97035,102070,104675,128046,102071,102067,126608],"tags":[4856,6638,482,6263],"dealstore":[],"offerexpiration":[],"class_list":["post-332730","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economic","category-economics","category-forecast","category-housing-index","category-housing-market","category-housing-market-trends-videos","category-market","category-market-conditions","category-market-new","category-market-news","category-more","tag-estate","tag-predictions","tag-real","tag-windermere"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Six Predictions for 2026 - Windermere Real Estate - Som2ny Network<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/som2nypost.com\/?p=332730\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Six Predictions for 2026 - Windermere Real Estate - Som2ny Network\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The following is a summary of Windermere Principal Economist Jeff Tucker\u2019s six predictions for the U.S. housing market and economy in 2026. 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