{"id":7046532,"date":"2026-08-24T21:20:30","date_gmt":"2026-08-24T21:20:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/som2nypost.com\/uncategorized\/bitcoins-80k-rally-is-a-trap-analyst-warns-of-45k-drop\/"},"modified":"2026-08-24T21:20:30","modified_gmt":"2026-08-24T21:20:30","slug":"bitcoins-80k-rally-is-a-trap-analyst-warns-of-45k-drop","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/som2nypost.com\/?p=7046532","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin&#8217;s $80K Rally Is a Trap, Analyst Warns of $45K Drop"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<p>&#13;<br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tThe analyst&#8217;s projected route runs from $77,000 to $67,000 then $55,000 before a final leg to between $45,000 and $48,000.\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div>\n<p>Bitcoin (BTC) spent this past week ripping from the low $60,000s to just under $80,000, and to trader Nonzee, none of it looks like conviction.<\/p>\n<p>They are calling the move a trap built on forced buying rather than real demand, and say the next leg is down, not up.<\/p>\n<h2>The Case for a Distribution Phase, Not a New Bull Run<\/h2>\n<p>Nonzee\u2019s argument starts with the size of the squeeze, where more than $3.1 billion in short positions were wiped out during the run, and Bitcoin alone was responsible for roughly $1.65 billion of that figure. In their <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/0xNonceSense\/status\/2091548958556557654?s=20\" target=\"_blank\">view<\/a>, that is what actually pushed the price higher, not a change in sentiment.<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>\u201cThat was not a reversal. It was a liquidity squeeze,\u201d they wrote.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>The trader tied the timing to two catalysts: Trump putting the CLARITY Act back in the headlines and the Treasury Department increasing its long-term bond buybacks. Both, they argue, forced shorts out and pulled fresh longs into a market that was already stretched thin.<\/p>\n<p>Their read on where things stand now is that the $70,000 fair value gap, a pricing gap left behind during an earlier fast move that traders watch for a return visit, has been filled, the short squeeze has run its course, and FOMO buying is happening in real time.<\/p>\n<p>Next will come distribution, then the selloff, in their framing, with a downside path running from $77,000 to $67,000, then $55,000, before a final leg down to between $48,000 and $45,000.<\/p>\n<p>Bitcoin was trading around $78,000 at the time of writing, up roughly 2% on the day and about 22% over the past week, according to CoinGecko. It has swung between $76,000 and $79,000 in the last 24 hours alone. Still, the OG crypto remains 39% below its all-time high of around $126,000, set back in October 2025, and it is still down 33% on a one-year basis despite the bounce.<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"heading-4\">You may also like:<\/h3>\n<h2>A Choppy Few Days Either Way<\/h2>\n<p>Whether or not Nonzee\u2019s call plays out, the past several days have already been rough on traders in both directions. BTC briefly <a href=\"https:\/\/cryptopotato.com\/bitcoins-price-approaches-80k-millions-liquidated-in-hours\/\">touched<\/a> almost $80,000 on Friday before <a href=\"https:\/\/cryptopotato.com\/btc-eth-xrp-tumble-as-wintermute-builds-heavy-short-positions\/\">slipping<\/a> to around $75,500 over the weekend, as <em>CryptoPotato<\/em> reported, with the drop coinciding with reports that market maker Wintermute had <a href=\"https:\/\/cryptopotato.com\/btc-eth-xrp-tumble-as-wintermute-builds-heavy-short-positions\/\">built<\/a> a sizable short position on Hyperliquid. During that stretch, altcoins fared worse, with ETH down 5% and XRP off by more than 6%.<\/p>\n<p>The bounce also pushed the Fear and Greed Index to its highest reading since last October\u2019s crash, a jump that has some drawing comparisons to the conditions right before that selloff wiped out billions in leveraged positions.<\/p>\n<p>Elsewhere, HYPE printed a new all-time high above $82 even as BTC cooled off, and separately, data from analyst nocoffeenobrain <a href=\"https:\/\/cryptoquant.com\/insights\/quicktake\/6a8bd60351eec822cf65726f-BTC-is-moving-faster-than-leverage\" target=\"_blank\">shows<\/a> open interest climbing from around $22 billion to nearly $25 billion during the rally, a slower pace than the move in price itself, which points to traders adding positions cautiously rather than piling on leverage all at once.<\/p>\n<div class=\"code-block code-block-12\" style=\"margin: 8px 0; clear: both;\">\n<!-- Footer ad [js] --><\/p>\n<p><noscript><br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/servedbyadbutler.com\/go2\/;ID=183000;size=0x0;setID=1321375\" target=\"_blank\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/servedbyadbutler.com\/adserve\/;ID=183000;size=0x0;setID=1321375;type=img\"\/><\/a><br \/>\n<\/noscript><\/div>\n<p><!-- CONTENT END 1 --><\/p><\/div>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#13; The analyst&#8217;s projected route runs from $77,000 to $67,000 then $55,000 before a final leg to between $45,000 and $48,000. Bitcoin (BTC) spent this past week ripping from the low $60,000s to just under $80,000, and to trader Nonzee, none of it looks like conviction. They are calling the move a trap built on [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":7046533,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[98049,194074,98050,109672],"tags":[209150,59912,14545,194075,14599,4448,1178,10444,18063],"dealstore":[],"offerexpiration":[],"class_list":["post-7046532","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-aa-news","category-bitcoin-btc-price","category-crypto-news","category-social","tag-45k","tag-80k","tag-analyst","tag-bitcoin-btc-price","tag-bitcoins","tag-drop","tag-rally","tag-trap","tag-warns"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Bitcoin&#039;s $80K Rally Is a Trap, Analyst Warns of $45K Drop - Som2ny Network<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/som2nypost.com\/?p=7046532\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Bitcoin&#039;s $80K Rally Is a Trap, Analyst Warns of $45K Drop - Som2ny Network\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"&#013; The analyst&#8217;s projected route runs from $77,000 to $67,000 then $55,000 before a final leg to between $45,000 and $48,000. 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