{"id":7070607,"date":"2026-09-30T16:24:20","date_gmt":"2026-09-30T16:24:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/som2nypost.com\/?p=7070607"},"modified":"2026-09-30T16:24:20","modified_gmt":"2026-09-30T16:24:20","slug":"pce-inflation-rate-drops-to-3-cooling-urgency-for-rate-hike","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/som2nypost.com\/?p=7070607","title":{"rendered":"PCE Inflation Rate Drops to 3%\u2014Cooling Urgency for Rate Hike"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<p class=\"base__StyledType-rui__sc-18muj27-0 IEPPf sc-7dicpk-0 ccZqsH core-paragraph\">A key inflation gauge closely tracked by the <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" target=\"_blank\" id=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/\" type=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/\">Federal Reserve <\/a>cooled more than anticipated last month even as consumer spending rose, casting doubt on further interest rate hikes this year. \u00a0<\/p>\n<p class=\"base__StyledType-rui__sc-18muj27-0 IEPPf sc-7dicpk-0 ccZqsH core-paragraph\">The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, rose 3% in August compared to a year ago and was up 0.2% month over month, the <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bea.gov\/news\/2026\/personal-income-and-outlays-august-2026\">Department of Commerce<\/a> reported Wednesday.<\/p>\n<p class=\"base__StyledType-rui__sc-18muj27-0 IEPPf sc-7dicpk-0 ccZqsH core-paragraph\">Both figures were lower than economists&#8217; forecasts of 3.3% and 0.3%, respectively. <\/p>\n<p><iframe height=\"230px\" style=\"width:100%;border:0\" src=\"https:\/\/www.realtor.com\/creative\/rdc-ads\/local-listings-widget\/\" loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Embedded widget\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p class=\"base__StyledType-rui__sc-18muj27-0 IEPPf sc-7dicpk-0 ccZqsH core-paragraph\">Central bank&#8217;s policymakers monitor core PCE to assess progress toward the Fed&#8217;s 2% annual inflation target.<\/p>\n<p class=\"base__StyledType-rui__sc-18muj27-0 IEPPf sc-7dicpk-0 ccZqsH core-paragraph\">Meanwhile, headline PCE\u00a0index measuring overall consumer prices increased 0.3% in August from July and was up 3.4% compared to last year, also coming in below economists&#8217; predictions. <\/p>\n<p class=\"base__StyledType-rui__sc-18muj27-0 IEPPf sc-7dicpk-0 ccZqsH core-paragraph\">Despite rising prices, Americans went on a buying spree in August. Inflation-adjusted spending surged 0.6% in August, up from 0.1% in July, marking the fastest month-over-month acceleration since March 2025. <\/p>\n<h2 class=\"base__StyledType-rui__sc-18muj27-0 eAPYSB\">What this means for the Fed<\/h2>\n<p class=\"base__StyledType-rui__sc-18muj27-0 IEPPf sc-7dicpk-0 ccZqsH core-paragraph\">Financial markets rallied Wednesday in response to the better-than-anticipated PCE print, dialling back expectations for a second interest rate increase this year. <\/p>\n<p class=\"base__StyledType-rui__sc-18muj27-0 IEPPf sc-7dicpk-0 ccZqsH core-paragraph\">Bond markets currently put the probability of the federal funds rate remaining at its current 3.75%-4% range at the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in October at just over 65%, according to <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/markets\/interest-rates\/cme-fedwatch-tool.html\">CME Fedwatch<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"base__StyledType-rui__sc-18muj27-0 IEPPf sc-7dicpk-0 ccZqsH core-paragraph\">The odds shifted down Tuesday after <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.realtor.com\/realestateandhomes-search\/New-York\">New York<\/a> Fed President <strong>John Williams<\/strong> made comments implying that he still favors one additional hike this year, but he sees &#8220;no need for urgency.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p class=\"base__StyledType-rui__sc-18muj27-0 IEPPf sc-7dicpk-0 ccZqsH core-paragraph\">In September, the <a target=\"_blank\" id=\"https:\/\/www.realtor.com\/news\/real-estate-news\/fed-meeting-interest-rate-decision-september-2026-2\/\" type=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.realtor.com\/news\/real-estate-news\/fed-meeting-interest-rate-decision-september-2026-2\/\">Fed raised its overnight benchmark rate<\/a> by a quarter-percentage point for the first time in three years to curb inflation. Most economists still anticipate at least one more hike by the end of December.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"base__StyledType-rui__sc-18muj27-0 IEPPf sc-7dicpk-0 ccZqsH core-paragraph\">The Fed uses higher interest rates to combat inflation, and lower rates to stimulate the economy and ensure maximum employment in line with its dual congressional mandate.\u00a0<\/p>\n<div class=\"Boxstyles__StyledBox-rui__sc-1p1qqov-0 cGIhfE sc-1d9c28t-0 dVWipe\">\n<figure><figcaption class=\"sc-1d9c28t-3 kUNXdc\"><span class=\"image-caption\">Consumer prices cooled in August both monthly and annually even as Americans stepped up spending. <\/span><span class=\"sc-1d9c28t-2 nMMWW image-credit\">Spencer Platt\/Getty Images<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<h2 class=\"base__StyledType-rui__sc-18muj27-0 eAPYSB\">Recent indicators<\/h2>\n<p class=\"base__StyledType-rui__sc-18muj27-0 IEPPf sc-7dicpk-0 ccZqsH core-paragraph\">In August, inflation as measured by the Labor Department&#8217;s higher-profile Consumer Price Index (CPI) <a target=\"_blank\" id=\"https:\/\/www.realtor.com\/news\/trends\/cpi-inflation-report-august-2026-fed-interest-rate-decision\/\" type=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.realtor.com\/news\/trends\/cpi-inflation-report-august-2026-fed-interest-rate-decision\/\">rose\u00a03.4% annually<\/a>, unchanged from July, while core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, ticked down to 2.4%.<\/p>\n<p class=\"base__StyledType-rui__sc-18muj27-0 IEPPf sc-7dicpk-0 ccZqsH core-paragraph\">Meanwhile, nonfarm <a target=\"_blank\" id=\"https:\/\/www.realtor.com\/research\/august-2026-employment-report\/\" type=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.realtor.com\/research\/august-2026-employment-report\/\">payrolls last month rebounded with 162,000 jobs added<\/a>, representing a major turnaround following two disappointing reports in June and July.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p class=\"base__StyledType-rui__sc-18muj27-0 IEPPf sc-7dicpk-0 ccZqsH core-paragraph\"><a target=\"_blank\" id=\"https:\/\/www.realtor.com\/research\/author\/jkrimmel\/\" type=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.realtor.com\/research\/author\/jkrimmel\/\">Realtor.com\u00ae senior economist <strong>Jake Krimmel<\/strong> <\/a>says while the latest PCE readout comes as welcome news, he expects the Fed to remain vigilant. Chairman <strong>Kevin Warsh <\/strong>has repeatedly stressed that he is more concerned with trends rather than single data points.<\/p>\n<p class=\"base__StyledType-rui__sc-18muj27-0 IEPPf sc-7dicpk-0 ccZqsH core-paragraph\">&#8220;My expectation is that the Fed will still hike again this year, but perhaps today&#8217;s favorable print, which is backward looking, we must remember, might give them a little breathing room to wait and see in October,&#8221; concludes Krimmel. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A key inflation gauge closely tracked by the Federal Reserve cooled more than anticipated last month even as consumer spending rose, casting doubt on further interest rate hikes this year. \u00a0 The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, rose 3% in August compared to a year ago [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":7070608,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[231488,156634,111703,167940,99386,101593],"tags":[231490,7315,231489,180551,8878,11406,44412,3526,1485,67309,1236],"dealstore":[],"offerexpiration":[],"class_list":["post-7070607","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economic-indicators","category-federal-reserve","category-inflation","category-interest-rates","category-trends","category-video","tag-3cooling","tag-drops","tag-economic-indicators","tag-federal-reserve","tag-hike","tag-inflation","tag-interest-rates","tag-pce","tag-rate","tag-urgency","tag-video"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.4 - 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