MLS is Back, Futi Style — American Soccer Analysis

MLS is back on Thursday, as we return from the World Cup break into a season finely poised to be one of the most fun we’ve had in quite some time. At the same time, our friends John Muller and Mike Imburgio have launched their new app, Futi. I’m sure they agonized over every word of their tagline, so I’ll copy it here: 

The new app that makes football make sense. Follow your favorite teams and players with real-time scores, shareable data visuals and pro analytics made simple.

 While ideologically we believe it’s called soccer, the app definitely does what it says on the tin. As such, I thought it’d be fun to dig in and see what Futi tells me to keep an eye on as we welcome MLS Saturday night’s back into our hearts. If you like what you see here (every image in here will be right out of the iOS app), head to futi.live and check it out for yourself.

Every year there is agonizing amongst the punditerati of the league about the balance of power between the two conferences. MLS Cup has six for the West, six for the East, across the last 12 finals. Supporters’ Shields are 8-4 East to West, but Wooden Spoons are 9-3 to the East as well. For this season, Futi’s “Team Ratings”, derived from a Dixon-Coles model on both attacking and defending strength and some match context clues (check out the model explainer section for more), favors the West by a lot.

The Vancouver Whitecaps, thus far, show up as by far the best team in the league, with nearly triple the xG difference (+24) of the next highest team (Chicago, +9). On the points front, due to the increased difficulty of the West, Vancouver are projected for “only” a gargantuan 74 points, while East toppers Nashville are headed for 72, despite a much lower xGD and Futi Team Rating. These projections include the actual schedule that these teams will face down the stretch, which really weighs heavily on the Nashville projection. Thus far, nobody can feel too hard done by with their current performances and their league position. Perhaps the Sounders (6th, projected 3rd) or NYCFC (8th, projected 5th).